When reflecting on his experience, he remembers that the prisoners who “felt they would be ‘home by Christmas’ fared much worse mentally than those who understood it might take much longer and adjusted.” He came to realize the importance of an informed optimism: the hope of an eventual escape with a realistic perspective on just how long and difficult that might be. Named after him, “The Stockdale Paradox” is based on his experience and further social science research on the power of informed hopefulness.7 Whether in prison or facing complex leadership challenges, we’re reminded that extending our timelines with informed optimism helps us to press on too.
To last, we need to adjust our expectations of how long and difficult this work will be. It will be a far more arduous climb than we can imagine, but we can anchor our optimism in the reality of God’s presence and promise to be with us, up to and including a final chapter that is better than we could dare to imagine. Leaders who last turn upward, they turn outward, and they walk onward.